We're Back!!!

After being gone for so long, I felt you deserve a lengthy article. So, I believe that this lengthy research paper by yours truly on climate change should more than suffice. Enjoy.

- Amber 

Climate Change, We Must Act Now

For years, the media has voiced the issues of climate change and global warming, but public opinion on the topic remains skeptical. “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [however], concluded in 2007 that warming of the climate system is now unequivocal,” (EPA). Climate change has an effect on the entire planet and all of its inhabitants. Even if its full effects are not felt today, it is scientifically proven that global warming’s impact will be greater still in future generations; especially if emission rates continue at their current rate. Climate change is an indisputable global issue that we must take preventative action against now in order to combat its potentially catastrophic effects. 

Climate change is any change in global weather patterns over time, and has been occurring naturally on Earth since the beginning of time. “From glacial periods when ice covered significant portions of the Earth to interglacial periods where ice retreated to the poles or melted entirely - the climate has continuously changed,” (EPA). Before the industrial era, there were three main drivers for these changes; adjustments in the Earth’s orbit, variation in the sun’s intensity, and volcanic eruptions. Changes in the shape and tilt of the Earth’s orbit effect the amount of sunlight that reaches the planet’s surface, and is thought to be the “most significant driver of ice ages,” (EPA). Variations in the intensity of the sun can either have a warming or cooling affect on the Earth’s temperature, and is caused by fluctuations in solar flares and activity on the sun. In addition, when volcanoes erupt they emit massive amounts of aerosols into the atmosphere in a brief period of time and can effectively block out the sun, having a cooling effect. These volcanic eruptions however only cause temporary cooling, and “human activities now emit 150 times as much CO₂ as volcanoes,” (EPA). Despite all of the potential natural causes for climate change, we are currently in an  interglacial period, the span of time between ice ages, and most of the effects we feel today are a direct result of human emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases. 

We are already beginning to feel the impact that human beings have had on the environment. Greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature changes, and ocean acidification have all been affected quite significantly by human influence in emissions, deforestation, and the burning of fossil fuels. “Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have historically varied... however, since the Industrial Revolution humans have added a significant amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” (EPA). The NOAA reports a 36% increase in carbon dioxide emissions, and a 148% increase in methane emissions in the last 100 years. Due to the net increase of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere over the last 20 years, there has been a dramatic rise in the radiative forcing of Earth by 21.5% or +0.12 watts per square meter (EPA). According to the EPA, radiative forcing is “the change in the balance between solar radiation entering the atmosphere and the Earth’s radiation going out... where an increase in radiative forcing of +1 watts is like shining one small holiday bulb over every square meter of the Earth,” (EPA). This means that as greenhouse gases trap solar radiation in the atmosphere, they heat the Earth and raise the global average surface temperature over time. This combination of radiative forcing and increased greenhouse gas emissions has lead to an obvious increase in the Earth’s temperature. 

Statistics clearly show that since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s, the global average surface temperature has been steadily increasing. According to a 2008 NOAA surface temperature analysis, the average surface temperature of the Earth has increased by about one degree Fahrenheit since the mid 1970s, and has continued to warm at a rate of roughly 0.3 degrees per decade. “The warming trend is seen in both daily maximum and minimum temperatures,” with  the eight warmest years on record all occurring since the year 2001 (EPA). The warming trend has already impacted the lives of many, with increased droughts and wide spread outbreaks of heat stroke. Many climates are not currently adapted to this heat, and many plants have been unable to cope, according to the IPCC, “recent studies indicate that increased frequency of heat stress, droughts and floods [have] negatively affected crop yields and livestock,” (IPCC). The effects of the rising surface temperature of the Earth have already had a negative influence on many lives.

“Over the past 200 years, the oceans have absorbed approximately one-half of the CO₂ produced by the burning of fossil fuels and other industrial processes,” (EPA). These emissions have already had a significant effect on the environment. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, there has been a decrease of only 0.1 pH units in the ocean since the beginning of the industrial era, equivalent to a 30% increase in acidic hydroxide ions in the oceans. The reason there has been such a slight change in pH levels, despite the dramatic increase in hydroxide ions is because of the ocean’s unique carbonate buffer system. This means that the ocean has a way of taking the large amounts of dissolved CO₂ in its surface waters and essentially storing them away using carbonate ions (EPA). The problem here however, is that these carbonate ions, which are being used more and more every year, are essential for marine calcifiers like corals, crabs, lobsters, and other crustaceans to make their shells. Without them, these important shells will not be able to form and many aquatic species will have increased danger of extinction. An increase in the ocean’s acidity will affect the fishing industries, and the ocean’s natural ecosystems. The ocean has become slightly more acidic since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, but even the slightest change in pH could have drastic effects on the delicate ecosystems of the ocean, as that means less carbonate ions for shells, and a reduction in the precious resources required for the ocean’s CO₂ exchange to occur. 

“The ongoing disruption of the Earth’s climate by man-made greenhouse gases is already well beyond dangerous and is careening towards completely unmanageable,” (J. Holdren). The future projections of climate change depend largely upon the action that we take now. There are however, several models created by the IPCC and EPA that can give a fairly clear portrayal of what the future will look like if we continue our emissions at their current rate. As far as global temperature projections are concerned, it is all but certain that temperatures will rise. The range of temperature increase is large; anywhere from a 1.1 to 6.4 degree Celsius increase by the year 2100 (EPA). It is likely that this warming will not be equally distributed however, with increased rates over land, in the arctic, and at high altitudes. Also, the IPCC recently reported that, “approximately 20% to 30% of plant and animal species... are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global temperatures exceed 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius,” (IPCC). Increased temperature changes would not only affect animals and plants, they would affect humans. If the increasing temperatures are already having an affect on crop production due to warmer temperatures and draughts, imagine the impact that a few more degrees over the next few hundred years would have, not to mention the fact that increased temperatures would lead to changes in sea level and weather patterns. Scientists are certain that global temperatures will continue to rise, adversely affecting other aspects of the environment.

According to the IPCC, “there is a high confidence that global warming over many centuries would lead to a sea level rise contribution from thermal expansion alone that is projected to be much larger than observed over the 20th century, with a loss of coastal areas and associated impacts,” (IPCC). This means that even if our greenhouse gas emissions were to cease entirely, the full effects they’ve had on the oceans would not be felt for several hundred years, as the oceans waters will essentially begin to expand as global temperature increases. The EPA projects that the sea level could rise between 19.2 and 31.6 inches by the year 2100 alone.   Even a few extra inches of water in the oceans will shrink coast lines and continue to erode away at the land. New Orleans, a city already below sea level and struggling to heal from the aftermath of hurricane Katrina would be especially endangered by any rise in sea level. Not to mention the fact that if the warming rate continues as it is over the next few centuries, it could melt the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and add between 5 and 6 meters of waters to the oceans (EPA). That much of an increase in sea level would be devastating to all coastal towns, having a huge impact on many lives. All scientific data points towards a definite increase in ocean levels in the future, but how much of an increase depends upon the action we choose to take now. 

In addition to its incredible impact on the oceans and temperatures, global warming will have an affect on the economy. “Impacts of climate change are very likely to impose net annual costs, which will increase over time as global temperatures increase,” reports the IPCC, costing on average $12 per ton of CO₂ emitted (IPCC). The net effects of global warming will prove detrimental to many industries, including: livestock, forestry, fisheries, construction, energy, insurance, and tourism. Wikipedia outlines the effects on the gross national product as, “a fall in global per-capita consumption of at least 5%... [with] the changing global climates disrupting the livelihoods of many in the agriculture business, and by 2030 climate risks could cost nations 19% of GDP, with developing nations most vulnerable,” (Wiki). This means that as the climate changes, it will greatly effect developing nations who rely heavily upon agriculture, creating an even larger gap between the wealth of developed and undeveloped countries. Obviously, any drop in GDP would prove detrimental to the global economy. Even if you cannot see how changes in ocean levels and pH will directly effect you, these potential changes in the economy are very real. A drop in the gross domestic product could mean a substantial economic depression, and thousands, if not millions left without jobs. As our current economic situation has taught us, recessions have tangible effects on every-day life. Economists and scientists are convinced that climate change can adversely effect the economy, and we should be too. 

There is not all bad news when it comes to climate change however, we do have a chance to stop the change and reverse its effects before it’s too late. According to the IPCC, “mitigation efforts and investments over the next two to three decades will have a large impact,” on the world’s future (IPCC). Following the heed of such statements, there have already been several important documents written outlining the world’s plan for combating climate change, one of these being the Copenhagen Accord. In 2009, the Copenhagen Climate Council, a panel made up of 30 global climate leaders from around the world, met with hopes to increase awareness, and stress the importance of action against climate change. The result was the Copenhagen Accord, a document that emphasizes the problem- opening with such a strong message as, “we recognize that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time,” (Copenhagen Accord). The Accord continues to advise that “the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius,” saying that “a low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development,” (IPCC). This means that it is of the utmost importance for countries to act now and reduce their emissions, to prevent a dramatic increase in global temperatures. The document then goes on to describe plans for developed nations to aid those that are undeveloped in implementing greener technologies and reducing emissions, estimating that “in USD $30 billion dollars a year by 2020,” should be spent in aid (Copenhagen Accord). The Copenhagen Accord very clearly states the problems that the world is facing, and offers clear solutions on a global level. Although the document has not been completely ratified, it offered significant support for environmental policies in the United Nations COP15 climate meeting and has already lead to some stricter national policies. This type of meeting and forward-thinking policy making is an excellent step in the right direction towards a greener future. 

On a global scale, a lot of action has been taken in the fight against global warming. The Kyoto Protocol, another important global document that calls for reduced emission rates, has already been ratified by 160 countries, accounting for 55% of global emissions; although the United States as of February 2010 has refused to ratify it (Wikipedia). With the United Sates being responsible for the second largest levels of emissions after China, this is a tremendous problem. Actions have been taken in the United States however, and we could potentially become a frontrunner in environmental policy making. In a momentous speech made by President Barack Obama he said, “global warming is not a someday problem, it is now... this is not the future any of us want for our children, and if we act now and we act boldly, it doesn’t have to be,” (barackobama.com). President Obama has furthermore pledged to “make combating global warming a top priority,” and will “invest $150 billion over 10 years in advanced energy technologies... doubling federal science and research funding for clean energy projects,” (barackobama.com). Clearly, the United States is making an effort to reduce its emissions, and strives for a better future. As Obama was quoted saying, the future may be a bleak one if we do not act now. Even if you are not convinced that the effects of climate change will be felt in your lifetime, you should know that its effects will certainly be felt in your children’s. It is important to preserve this planet for future generations- and this preservation is very possible. 

There have already been many measures taken in this country to ensure a better future. The federal government has pledged to switch to 30% renewable energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions 25% by the year 2025 (barackobama.com). President Obama has also promised to increase incentives and grants for companies who reduce emissions and their impact on the planet. In the whole, the goal will be to not only to cut emissions, but to restore and protect nature as well. Cleaning up bodies of water, restoring grasslands, protecting forests, and creating new federal reserves are only some of the measures in store for the future. The American Clean Energy and Security Act, or ACES, calls for a cap on emissions of power planets, refineries, and industrial facilities that exceed 25,000 tons of emissions (ACES). The ACES bill will also “create a program for worker training, education, and transition for clean energy jobs,” preparing the world for a future with more environmentally conscious careers and renewable energy resources (ACES). Legislation such as the ACES bill provide the “major policies needed to generate millions of jobs, break our dependence on oil, and reduce the pollution that causes global warming,” (ACES). In an economy such as ours where we are already in a recession, the opportunity to create millions of new job opportunities, pioneer environmental policies, and protect the planet is tremendous. 

Not every country in the world however, is as interested in making a change. In 2008, a Gallup Poll of over 122 countries worldwide showed that over a third of the global population is unaware or does not believe in the existence of climate change (Wikipedia). According to the survey, Africa knew the least about climate change, with Latin America comfortably ahead of the pack in terms of awareness, and the United States falling somewhere in the middle. Similarly, I conducted a survey at Spokane Community College, encompassing a variety of demographics and discovered that only 60% of people believe in the existence of climate change, with 20% of people unsure of its existence, and 10% not believing in it at all. Surprisingly, 80% of the participants believed that greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere can be reduced. Also, 80% of those surveyed actively recycle despite their differing opinions on global warming. The conclusion I draw from this information is that the majority of people believe in climate change, believe that something can be done, and are actively doing something in their community to aid the solution. This is excellent news, and with more scientific proof by the day, these numbers can only go up. 

Action does not stop on a national level however, there are simple things that individuals can do in their day-to-day lives to reduce their emissions and help in the fight against global warming. Almost every city in the United States has a recycling program of little to no cost, which provides and excellent and easy way to help the planet. Replacing traditional lights with new fluorescent bulbs is also a great way to reduce your carbon footprint and your electric bill. Flourescent bulbs are 75% more efficient and last up to 10 times longer. Choosing public transportation, car-pooling, or even walking or biking instead of driving your car are also easy methods to reduce, and save money. Buying groceries locally at farmer’s markets reduces the distance that your fruits and vegetables have to travel in order to get to your doorstep, and reduces the amount of pesticides  and fertilizers that you put into your body when you eat them. There are hundreds of very simple ways to reduce your carbon footprint that can easily be implement into your daily life with an almost imperceivable difference. 

For the past three months I have been writing an environmental blog, challenging myself to reduce my carbon footprint, the amount of carbon I put into the environment, as much as possible while still maintaining a normal life. Every week I have set new goals for myself and implemented them into my routine. By becoming vegetarian for only one month, I saved roughly 75,000 gallons of water. By cutting back on extraneous trips in the car I cut back on 3 tanks of gas and saved almost $100. By setting an example for my family I have made a difference in my households carbon footprint. I know how easy it is to go green, and to live an environmentally friendly lifestyle. I also know how much of an effect my reductions have had, and the water that I’ve saved and the electricity and gas that I’ve refrained from using have made a difference. It may not seem like switching your light bulbs can have a huge impact on climate change, but if every person in the United States followed that example- the impact would be huge. Change starts with the individual. As the IPCC said, evidence supporting the “warming of the climate system is now unequivocal,” (IPCC). Climate change is real, and it is time for us to take action now. 

Global warming, by its title exhibits the magnitude of its reach- it is a global issue. As such, the entire planet needs to take interest and accountability for the current environmental situation. There is still a lot that we can do, both as individuals and as a nation to reduce emissions and work towards reversing the current effects that our emissions have had on the environment. According to the IPCC, “there is high confidence that neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts; however, they can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change,” (IPCC). This means that if we take action now, and work together it is very possible to succeed in this fight against global warming and limit the effects that it will indefinitely have on the planet. Without a doubt, “climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time,” but there hasn’t been a challenge  yet that the world has not been able to face (Copenhagen Accord).