Thursday, February 11, 2010

Ice Caps Melting



Unfortunately, I am not feeling my most eloquent tonight. So this article is going to be a short one, but hopefully also an informative one. Short and concise.
Figure 1: This graph shows estimates of past sea level (from 1800 to about 1870), measured changes in sea level (from about 1870 to 2006), and projections of future sea level rise to the year 2100. Past sea levels at the beginning of the period were roughly 120-200 millimeters lower than today's levels; projected future sea levels in the year 2100 range from 220 millimeters to nearly 500 millimeters higher than today's levels.

The topic for today's article is the rising sea level, and melting ice caps. According to the EPA, rising ocean temperatures will most likely lead to:

  • expanding ocean water
  • rising water levels
  • melting mountain glaciers and ice caps
  • melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, leading to erosion and land slides into the ocean
As the graph shows, sea levels are expected to rise 7 and 24 inches by the year 2100. That is a drastic leap in sea level, compared to the roughly 5 inch rise over the last century. The sea level on the majority of the United States coast has been rising at a fairly steady rate of 0.08 to 0.12 inches per year- with some variation due to natural land sinking and land rising, in places such as Alaska and Louisiana. 

If however, ice melting were to continue in a more linear fashion, and pollution levels and greenhouse gas emissions were to continue to rise at their current rate, the projected sea level rise by 2100 would be more along the lines of 19 to 32 inches. Now, a little over a foot in almost a hundred years doesn't seem like that much of a change- but it is. A lot of that sea level rising would be due to land slides on coastal Antarctica and Greenland, causing much erosion. Not to mention the fact that the expected rise in ocean temperature that would cause ice cap melting and sea level rising could drastically change the delicate balance of the ocean, destroying critical ecosystems

And if the ice sheets were to melt completely, which they are on their way towards doing over the next couple of hundred years, ocean levels would rise even more drastically than I've previously mentioned. According to the EPA:
  • The West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise sea levels by 17-20 feet
  • The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise sea levels by 23 feet
The Antarctic ice sheet is actually reportedly unstable, and with sustained warming over a few centuries, could very easily break off and slide into the ocean. The Greenland ice sheet on the other hand is much more stable, and would require more time to melt completely. A much slower process. Luckily, none of these drastic ocean level changes will occur in any of our lifetimes; but the delicate balance of the ocean is already precarious. And with very limited knowledge on previous fluctuations in sea levels and temperatures, predictions are only rough estimations and educated guesses. But one thing is for certain. Ocean temperatures are rising. The sea level is rising. And human influence and carbon emissions are most definitely linked to it.

- Amber


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